Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), IP & Capacity Utilization (Dec)
- Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- Canada: CPI (Dec), Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Dec)
- Germany: Hotel and Restaurant Turnover (Nov), Tax Revenues (Q3)
- Turkey: IIP, International Reserves, Foreign Trade Indexes (Nov)
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Nov)
- Colombia: Manufacturing IP, Retail Sales (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller January 25, 2007
Initial unemployment insurance claims jumped 36,000 to 325,000 last week and reversed all of the declines over the prior two weeks. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 310,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims increased modestly to 309,250 (7.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 39,000 and reversed part of the prior week's 113,000 surge.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's been since February.
The Budget & Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016 from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/20/07 | 01/13/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 325 | 289 | 15.7% | 313 | 332 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,484 | -3.2% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
