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Economy in Brief

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Jumped
by Tom Moeller January 25, 2007

Initial unemployment insurance claims jumped 36,000 to 325,000 last week and reversed all of the declines over the prior two weeks. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 310,000.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims increased modestly to 309,250 (7.1% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 39,000 and reversed part of the prior week's 113,000 surge.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's been since February.

The Budget & Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016 from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 01/20/07 01/13/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Initial Claims 325 289 15.7% 313 332 343
 Continuing Claims -- 2,484 -3.2% 2,459 2,662 2,924
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