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- ** Australia building activity and value of private construction have changed reference year from Q3:15-Q2:16 to Q3:16-Q2:17.**
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Weakens Sharply
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined to 3.9 in January...
U.S. Prices of Energy Products Are Mixed
Gasoline prices averaged a fairly steady $2.25 per gallon this past week (-12.1% y/y)...
EMU Trade Balance Stays Stubbornly Large
The EMU trade balance widened to 15.1 billion euros in November from 13.5 billion euros in October...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Exhibit Broad-based Weakness
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index has been weakening since late-June...
by Tom Moeller January 23, 2007
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales last week ticked 0.1% higher after no change the prior week.
The seeming lethargy of these gains, however, belies the greater strength of spending. Due to firm gains at the end of December and at the beginning of this month, the average level of chain store sales in January is up 3.0% from the prior month, a rate of increase not seen since 1999.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS also showed strength and rose 0.3% after a 0.8% increase the prior week.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 1/20/07 | 1/13/06 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 480.9 | 480.2 | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
