Recent Updates
- France: **France Wages and Earnings Rebased to Q2-2017=100**
- Norway: International Reserves (Aug), Government Debt (Q2); Finland: Quarterly Sector Accounts, Government Balance (Q2); Denmark: Property Price Indexes (Q2); Iceland: Wage Index (Aug)
- Turkey: IIP & Intl Reserves (Jul); South Africa: Retail Survey (Q4); Mauritius: PPI (Jun); Lebanon: CPI (Aug)
- Spain: Industrial Turnover & New Orders, Foreign Trade (Jul), Service Sector Activity (Jul)
- Germany: Tourism Statistics, Hotel & Restaurant Turnover (Jul),
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Down Further
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 201,000 (-21.2% y/y) during the week ended September 15...
U.S. Housing Starts Rebound After Two Months of Decline
New home building activity improved last month. Total housing
starts rose 9.2% during August (9.4% y/y)
Special Topics
by Tom Moeller January 16, 2007
The January index of manufacturing activity in New York State softened considerably. The Index of General Business Conditions fell 13.06 points, the second down month, to 9.13. That was the lowest level since June 2003. Consensus expectations for the Empire State index had been for a more moderate decline to 19.5. The figures are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Since the series' inception in 2001 there has been a 75% correlation between the index level and the three month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production.
The indexes for new orders halved to 10.26, the lowest level since 2003, while the indexes for employment and shipments also fell considerably. The indexes for inventories and delivery times also fell sharply.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.
Pricing pressure improved moderately to the highest level since last September. The 7.02 rise in the prices paid index recovered all of the prior month's decline. Since 2001 there has been an 88% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months also fell sharply to the lowest level since last May. The index of expected new orders collapsed to the lowest since March 2006.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | January | December | Jan. '06 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index) | 9.13 | 22.19 | 20.28 | 20.33 | 15.62 | 28.70 |
