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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 12, 2007
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in November following a downwardly revised 0.2% October gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise and over the last three months the 0.3% average increase was the slowest since September of last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the y/y change in business inventories and the change in factory sector industrial production. Using quarterly figures, there has been an 84% correlation between the change in real private nonfarm inventories and production.
Business sales rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y), the first increase in three months. Wholesale sales led the gain with a 1.0% (7.95 y/y) pop and retail sales rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y). Factory shipments ticked up 0.1% (0.7% y/y). As a result the inventory to sales ratio was stable at 1.30 for the third month.
Retail inventories fell for the third straight month but excluding autos they rose 0.3%. General merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) and have been accumulating strongly since May. Clothing store inventories surged 1.6% (9.7% y/y), the third month of strong gain. Furniture inventories fell for the second month with a 0.2% decline (+4.3% y/y).
Business Inventories | November | October | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.4% | 0.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 7.6% | -1.0% |
Retail | -0.3% | -0.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
Retail excl. Autos | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
Wholesale | 1.3% | 0.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 1.8% |
Manufacturing | 0.2% | 0.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 6.9% | -7.4% |