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- US: Consumer Sentiment (Aug-prelim), Import/Export Prices (Jul)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 12, 2007
Higher petroleum prices fueled a 1.1% jump in overall import prices last month which was about double Consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain.
The increase occurred as petroleum import prices surged 4.8% in December after sharp declines during the prior three months. So far in January the price of WTI crude oil has fallen roughly six dollars (-10%) from the $62.03 per bbl. averaged in December and yesterday's price was down ten dollars to $51.89.
Less petroleum import prices rose 0.4% in December and the prior month's increase was revised up to 0.9% from 0.7%. During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies.
Prices for nonoil industrial supplies & materials surged 1.5% (4.5% y/y) after a 4.0% November spike. Prices for nondurable industrial supplies less petroleum rose 2.6% (-5.8% y/y) after an upwardly revised 8.9% November jump. Prices for durable industrial supplies & materials rose 0.7% (14.7% y/y).
Capital goods prices ticked up 0.1% (0.4% y/y) and excluding a 0.1% (-3.6% y/y) decline in computers, capital goods prices rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y) in December. Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y).
Export prices rose 0.7% as agricultural export prices surged 2.2% (13.2% y/y) but nonagricultural export prices rose 0.5% (3.8% y/y).
The Adjustment of Global External Imbalances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices Matter? from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
The Internationalization of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | December | November | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
Petroleum | 4.8% | -1.2% | 6.2% | 20.7% | 37.6% | 30.5% |
Non-petroleum | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
Export- All Commodities | 0.7% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% |