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Economy in Brief
U.S. Factory Orders Inch Higher; Shipments Fall Again
Manufacturers' orders gained 0.1% (4.2% y/y) during January...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.55 per gallon (-1.9% y/y)...
ZEW's Global Assessments Remain Weak
ZEW survey expectations curled higher this month but continued to stake out very weak readings...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Remains Improved
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index held steady at 62 during March...
EMU Trade Surplus Expands on Weak Import Rise
In the EMU, both import and export gains were modest in January...
by Tom Moeller January 9, 2007
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS, chain store sales last week began the new year with a 0.7% rise. The gain lifted the opening level for 2007 3.0% above the December average which rose just 0.1% from November.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Going the other way, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell for the third straight week and posted a 0.4% decline.
Mortgage Innovation and Consumer Choice from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 1/06/07 | 12/30/06 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 480.3 | 476.8 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
