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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Opened The New Year With A Gain
by Tom Moeller January 9, 2007

According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS, chain store sales last week began the new year with a 0.7% rise. The gain lifted the opening level for 2007 3.0% above the December average which rose just 0.1% from November.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

Going the other way, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell for the third straight week and posted a 0.4% decline.

Mortgage Innovation and Consumer Choice from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 1/06/07 12/30/06 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 480.3 476.8 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
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