Recent Updates
- Zambia: External Debt (Q2)
- Slovenia: PPI (Jul)
- Peru: Balance of Payments (Q2) 08?19 EMERGEPR Taiwan: Industrial Production (Jun), New Motor Vehicle Registration (Jul), BOP, External Debt (Q2)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Inflation Rages in EMU and Hovers Globally
Inflation in the European Monetary Union in July finalizes at 8.8% year-over-year...
U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in July; Nonauto Sales Rise
Total retail sales remained unchanged during July (10.3% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 9, 2007
Small business optimism fell for the second consecutive month in December. The 3.2% decline followed a 1.0% November slip and left optimism 10.4% below its peak in late 2004, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
Respondents expecting the economy to improve dropped sharply while the percentage of firms with job openings and those expecting higher real sales in six months fell moderately.
During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the NFIB percentage and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
The percent planning to raise capital expenditures also dropped sharply to a three year low.
The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices rose moderately but the percentage of firms actually raising prices fell to the lowest level since early 2004. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The Economic Outlook, yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn, can be found here.
Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | December | November | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 96.5 | 99.7 | -4.9% | 98.9 | 101.6 | 104.6 |