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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Negative
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2006

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago remained negative in November at -0.26. The figure was negative for the fifth month in the last seven. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI fell to -0.32, its lowest level since 2003.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The complete CFNAI report is available here.

The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.

Chicago Fed November October November '05 2005 2004 2003
CFNAI -0.26 -0.30 0.88 0.21 0.30 -0.17
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