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Economy in Brief

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rose
by Tom Moeller December 21, 2006

Initial unemployment insurance claims increased 9,000 last week to 315,000 and reversed half of the revised decline during the prior week. The increase matched Consensus expectations.

The latest figure covers the December survey period for nonfarm payrolls and claims fell 8,000 (-2.5%) from the November period.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 325,750 (+2.9% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 45,000 and reversed all of the prior week's decline.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9% for the seventh consecutive week and equaled the average rate since February.

Interest Rates, Carry Trades, and Exchange Rate Movements from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 12/16/06 12/09/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 315 306 1.0% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,520 -3.7% 2,662 2,924 3,532
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