Recent Updates

  • Truckometer (Dec)
  • Ireland: **Quarterly LFS set to NA due to change in methodology. History delayed by source**
  • Korea: Resident Deposits by Currency, Credit Card Usage (Dec); Mongolia: International Trade, Industrial Production, Employment (Dec), Total Population (2017); Thailand: Tourist Arrivals (Dec, 2017); India: Foreign Tourist Arrivals (Dec); China: FDI (Dec); Sri Lanka: PMI (Dec)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Inventory Accumulation Continued Easier
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2006

Total business inventories rose an expected 0.4% in October, a bit above a downwardly revised 0.3% September increase. Over the last three months the 0.4% average increase was the slowest since March.

During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the y/y change in business inventories and the change in factory sector industrial production. Using quarterly figures, there has been an 84% correlation between the change in real private nonfarm inventories and production.

Business sales fell 0.2% (+3.6% y/y) after a 2.3% September decline. Manufacturers' sales recovered all of 0.1% after the 4.2% September drop. Retail sales fell 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) and wholesale sales fell 0.5% (+5.9% y/y) after a 1.5% September drop. As a result the inventory to sales ratio rose to 1.31.

Retail inventories were unchanged but excluding autos they rose 0.3% after an upwardly revised 0.2% September gain. General merchandise inventories surged 1.2% (2.9% y/y) and have been accumulating strongly since May. Accumulation of clothing store inventories also was firm at 0.8% (7.2% y/y). Furniture inventories rose a moderate 0.3% (5.2% y/y).

Business Inventories October September Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total 0.4% 0.3% 7.3% 4.4% 7.6% -1.0%
  Retail 0.0% -0.3% 5.4% 2.7% 6.7% 3.8%
    Retail excl. Autos 0.3% 0.2% 4.8% 4.5% 7.1% 1.9%
  Wholesale 0.8% 0.7% 10.1% 7.1% 9.8% 1.8%
  Manufacturing 0.4% 0.6% 7.1% 4.0% 6.9% -7.4%
close
large image