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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Recovered Some
by Tom Moeller December 12, 2006

Last week chain store sales, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS, recovered about a third of the prior period's collapse with a 1.0% rise. So far in December sales are 2.0% below the November average which advanced 0.3% from October.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS advanced for the fourth week in the last five. The 0.7% increase (0.7% y/y) pulled the measure up 3.5% from the May low.

Survey Says Families are Digging Deeper Into Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 12/09/06 12/02/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 458.8 454.4 3.2% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
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