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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2006
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its November business barometer fell to 49.9. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index and the three month change in US factory sector industrial production.
All of the component series weakened m/m with the employment index falling to 49.4 versus an average 54.2 last year and new orders fell to 52.0 versus a 2005 average of 64.4.
The prices paid index dropped to 60.2, its lowest level since since May of last year.During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the level of the prices diffusion index and the three month change in the core PPI for intermediate good.
| Chicago PMI | November | October | Nov. '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 49.9 | 53.5 | 60.8 | 60.4 | 62.8 | 54.7 |
