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Economy in Brief

Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey Down in November
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2006

The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its November business barometer fell to 49.9. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003.

During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index and the three month change in US factory sector industrial production.

All of the component series weakened m/m with the employment index falling to 49.4 versus an average 54.2 last year and new orders fell to 52.0 versus a 2005 average of 64.4.

The prices paid index dropped to 60.2, its lowest level since since May of last year.During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the level of the prices diffusion index and the three month change in the core PPI for intermediate good.

Chicago PMI November October Nov. '05 2005 2004 2003
Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index 49.9 53.5 60.8 60.4 62.8 54.7
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