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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2006
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its November business barometer fell to 49.9. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index and the three month change in US factory sector industrial production.
All of the component series weakened m/m with the employment index falling to 49.4 versus an average 54.2 last year and new orders fell to 52.0 versus a 2005 average of 64.4.
The prices paid index dropped to 60.2, its lowest level since since May of last year.During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the level of the prices diffusion index and the three month change in the core PPI for intermediate good.
| Chicago PMI | November | October | Nov. '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index | 49.9 | 53.5 | 60.8 | 60.4 | 62.8 | 54.7 |
