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Economy in Brief

Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip, Month A Bit Better
by Tom Moeller November 28, 2006

Chain store sales during Thanksgiving week slipped 0.4% after a 1.2% surge the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. Despite the decline November sales advanced 0.3% from the October average, which fell 0.7%, but it was only the second monthly gain since April.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.3% (+0.1% y/y) after two week's of respectable increase.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/25/06 11/18/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 466.5 468.3 2.6% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
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