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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Remained Negative
by Tom Moeller November 21, 2006

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago remained negative in October at -0.31, negative for the fifth month in the last six. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI dropped to -0.19, its lowest level since Hurricane Katrina depressed activity last year.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The complete CFNAI report is available here.

The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.

Chicago Fed October September October '05 2005 2004 2003
CFNAI -0.31 -0.38 1.03 0.20 0.35 -0.15
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