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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Off As Well
by Tom Moeller November 14, 2006

Chain store sales last week fell 0.8% and gave back most of the prior period's 1.0% recovery, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. That pulled sales in November about even with October which fell 0.7% from September.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS jumped 0.8% (0.8% y/y) last week after a 0.4% decline during the prior period.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/11/06 11/04/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 462.9 466.4 2.1% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
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