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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Back Down
by Tom Moeller November 9, 2006

Initial claims for unemployment insurance reversed the prior week's jump and fell 20,000 last week to 308,000. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 315,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims was nearly unchanged at 311,250 (-4.2% y/y).

With a 43,000 increase, continuing claims for unemployment insurance reversed a deepened decline the prior week.

The insured rate of unemployment backed up to 1.9%.

Construction Slowdown from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 11/04/06 10/28/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 308 328 -2.5% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,448 -10.3% 2,662 2,924 3,532
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