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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Recover
by Tom Moeller November 7, 2006

Chain store sales last week recovered much of the declines during the prior two weeks with a 1.0% gain, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. That pulled the opening level of sales in November 0.4% higher than the October average which fell 0.7% from September.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.4% (+0.2% y/y) last week after an unchanged reading the prior period.

A Theory of Political Cycles from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.

Politics and Exchange Rate Forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 11/04/06 10/28/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 466.4 461.8 2.3% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
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