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Economy in Brief

ADP Reported Hiring Improved During October
by Tom Moeller November 1, 2006

The payroll processor ADP reported that the Nat'l Employment Report indicated a rise in private nonfarm payrolls of 128,000 last month. The October figure from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will be published this Friday.

ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls for September indicated a weak 78,000 rise in payrolls that was accompanied by a meager 59,000 rise in private nonfarm payrolls, when published by BLS.

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

Globalization's Effect on Interest Rates and the Yield Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.

LAXEPA@USECON October September Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.) 128,000 78,000 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% -0.4%
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