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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Momentum Gone
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2006

Chain store sales fell another 0.2% last week on the heels of a 1.1% drop the week prior, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. Average October sales, therefore, fell 0.7% following a 0.5% decline during September.

During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS was unchanged 0.4% y/y) last week after a 0.1% slip during the prior period.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 10/28/06 10/21/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 461.8 462.9 2.3% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
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