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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reversed Decline
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2006

Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week rose 8,000 and reversed the little revised 9,000 worker decline during the prior period. At 308,000 claims remained low but up slightly from the lowest levels near 280,000 reached this past January. Consensus expectations had been for 309,000 claims during the latest week.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 305,250 (-13.6% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 3,000 after a downwardly revised 18,000 increase the prior week.

The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.

How Labor Market Policies Shape Immigrants’ Opportunities from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 10/21/06 10/14/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 308 300 -3.4% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,449 -12.3% 2,662 2,924 3,532
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