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Economy in Brief

Decline in Chain Store Sales Retraced All of the Recent Gains
by Tom Moeller October 24, 2006

Chain store sales dropped 1.1% last week and gave back all of the gains of the prior two periods, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The decline lowered the change in October sales to -0.4% versus the September average.

During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS slipped 0.1% (+0.1% y/y) and reversed the prior week's increase.

Taxation, Entrepreneurship, and Wealth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here

Pass-through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 10/21/06 10/14/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 462.9 468.1 2.9% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
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