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Economy in Brief

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remained Low
by Tom Moeller October 12, 2006

Initial claims for jobless insurance last week recovered just 4,000 of the revised 15,000 drop during the prior period and rose to 308,000. Consensus expectations had been for 311,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 313,250 (-18.0% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 5,000 after a revised 7,000 increase the prior week that initially was reported as a modest w/w decline.

The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.

The self-employment duration of younger men over the business cycle from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 10/07/06 9/30/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 308 304 -17.2% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,445 -13.5% 2,662 2,924 3,532
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