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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance At Ten Week Low
by Tom Moeller October 5, 2006

Initial claims for jobless insurance dropped 17,000 to 302,000, following the 3,000 decline the prior week which was slightly shallower than initially reported. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 313,500 (-20.4% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 8,000 after a 38,000 drop the prior week that was deeper than initially reported.

The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.

Economic Outlook, last night's remarks by Fed Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn, can be found here. Chairman Bernanke's comments on The Coming Demographic Transition can be found with yesterday's ADP write-up.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 9/30/06 9/23/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 302 319 -20.3% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,448 -13.9% 2,662 2,924 3,532
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