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Economy in Brief

ADP Reports Less Hiring During September
by Tom Moeller October 4, 2006

The Nat'l Employment Report, published by the payroll processor ADP, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls rose 78,000 last month. The September figure from BLS will be published this Friday.

During August, ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls rose 107,000 and that gain was accompanied by a 111,000 rise in private nonfarm payrolls, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which grew an average of 11,333 per month over the last year.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

The Coming Demographic Transition: Will We Treat Future Generations Fairly?, today's speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke is available here.

LAXEPA@USECON September August Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.) 78,000 107,000 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% -0.4%
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