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Economy in Brief
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller September 28, 2006
U.S. real GDP growth last quarter was revised back to 2.6% (AR) from the preliminary report of 2.9% and the advance report of 2.5% growth. The figure fell short of Consensus expectations for an unrevised 2.9% advance.
Growth in 2Q corporate profits was revised down to 1.4% (18.5% y/y) from the initial report of a 3.2% advance. Profits at U.S. nonfinancial corporations fell a revised 3.6% (+10.7% y/y) instead of rising 0.6%. Financial corporate profits grew a stronger 9.4% (29.6% y/y) and earnings of overseas corporations grew a stronger 6.1% (29.5% y/y).
A lessened contribution from inventories, back to 0.4% from 0.6%, was the source of most of the downward revision to 2Q GDP growth. The contribution from an improved net export deficit was unrevised at 0.4 percentage points though exports grew a somewhat stronger 6.2% (8.2% y/y) and imports rose 1.4% (6.4% y/y).
Growth in final sales to domestic purchasers was notched down slightly to 1.6% (3.0% y/y) as the decline in residential investment was deepened to 11.1% (-1.5% y/y) and that reduced 2Q GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points.
Real personal consumption expenditures was unrevised at 2.6% (3.0% y/y) while growth in business fixed investment was revised slightly lower to 4.4% (7.2% y/y).
The rise in the GDP chain price index was unrevised at 3.3%. Less final sales of computers the chain price index grew 3.5% (3.4% y/y). The chain price index for residential investment grew 2.9% (5.0% y/y), down from a peak quarterly rate of growth of 10.5% in early 2004.
Barreling Down the Road To Recession? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 2Q '06 (Final) | 2Q '06 (Prelim.) | 1Q '06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
Inventory Effect | 0.4% | 0.6% | -0.0% | 0.6% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Final Sales | 2.1% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
Foreign Trade Effect | 0.4% | 0.4% | -0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
Domestic Final Demand | 1.6% | 1.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
Chained GDP Price Index | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% |