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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Negative Again
by Tom Moeller September 21, 2006

The August National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago at -0.18 was negative for the third month in the last four and that was enough to pull the three-month moving average of the CFNAI fell to 0.05, its lowest level in over a year.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The latest CFNAI report is available here.

Chicago Fed August July August '05 2005 2004 2003
CFNAI -0.18 -0.07 0.13 0.20 0.35 -0.15
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