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Economy in Brief

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose More Than Expected
by Tom Moeller September 21, 2006

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 7,000 last week to 318,000 reversing two weeks of moderate decline. Consensus expectations had been for 310,000 claims. Last year, claims surged in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

The latest figure covers the survey period for September nonfarm payrolls and filings rose 4,000 (1.3%) from the August period.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims was unchanged at 315,000 (-15.0% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 29,000 after a 9,000 increase the prior week that was half the rise initially reported.

The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.

Would an Inflation Target Help Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 9/16/06 9/09/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 318 311 -24.5% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,461 -6.9% 2,662 2,924 3,532
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