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- Australia: Job Vacancy Report (Sep)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Ease
Gasoline prices fell four cents last week to an average $2.84 per gallon (+14.6% y/y)...
German PPI Makes Sharp Gain on Rising Energy Costs
The German PPI rose by a strong 0.6% in September, but the PPI excluding energy gained just 0.1%...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Fall Further
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index declined 1.3% during the last four weeks...
Japan’s METI Sector Indexes Rebound But Still Lag
Japan's economy continues to fight for revival...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Weaken, Dragging Down Prices
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes during September declined 3.4% to 5.150 million...
by Tom Moeller September 19, 2006
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales fell a hard 1.1% last week. The second consecutive w/w drop pulled the average sales level in September about even with August.
During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline dropped twelve cents w/w to an average $2.50 (-10.4% y/y), the lowest level since early March.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS increased 0.8% (1.0% y/y) in the latest week and raised the y/y gain into positive territory for the first time since April.
Household Energy Expenditures, 1982-2005 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/16/06 | 09/09/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 466.8 | 471.8 | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
