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Economy in Brief
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller September 19, 2006
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales fell a hard 1.1% last week. The second consecutive w/w drop pulled the average sales level in September about even with August.
During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline dropped twelve cents w/w to an average $2.50 (-10.4% y/y), the lowest level since early March.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS increased 0.8% (1.0% y/y) in the latest week and raised the y/y gain into positive territory for the first time since April.
Household Energy Expenditures, 1982-2005 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/16/06 | 09/09/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 466.8 | 471.8 | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
