Recent Updates

  • US: GDP by Industry (Q4)
  • Poland: PPI, IP (Mar); Bulgaria: BOP (Feb); Romania: Turnover & New Orders (Feb); Russia: External Debt Payment Schedule (Q4)
  • Sweden: Dwelling Stock (2017); Norway: Bank Lending Survey (Q2), Oil & Gas Production (Mar)
  • US: NCI Economic Activity Index (Apr)
  • Qatar: IP (Feb); Kuwait: CPI (Mar); South Africa: Wholesale & Motor Trade Sales (Feb); Bahrain: CPI (Mar)
  • UK: Retail Sales (Mar), RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1), FCA
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

CPI Rose An Expected 0.2%
by Tom Moeller September 15, 2006

In August, the consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.2%, half the prior month's gain. Less food & energy, prices also rose an expected 0.2% for the second month and the gain equaled the average rate of increase during 2006.

Increases in energy prices took a breather last month and rose just 0.2% after the 2.9% July spike. Gasoline prices ticked up just 0.2% (19.6% y/y) to an average $2.95 per gallon but have since declined in September. Last week's read was $2.62 and spot market trading this week suggests further declines in gasoline prices. Natural gas & electricity prices in August rose 0.2% (9.6% y/y) and the spot price for natural gas in September is down roughly 20% m/m.

Core goods prices rose 0.2% after a 0.1% July decline. On average core goods prices have risen 0.1% in 2006. Apparel prices surged 0.9% (0.3% y/y) after declining in July while furniture & bedding prices rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Appliance prices declined 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) and new & used motor vehicle prices were unchanged (0.6% y/y). Tobacco prices fell 0.1% (+2.9% y/y) and medical care commodity prices rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y).

Core services prices rose 0.2%, half the gains of the prior three months. Shelter prices rose a diminished 0.2% (3.8% y/y) as the rental equivalence measure of owners' primary residences rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) and rents rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) for the third straight month. Public transportation costs increased 0.3% (5.0% y/y) while education costs surged 0.7% (6.4% y/y). Medical care services prices doubled the prior month's rate of increase and rose 0.4% (4.4% y/y).

Food & beverage prices rose 0.3% as meat, fish & poultry prices recovered 1.0% (1.5% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices also surged 1.0% (5.3% y/y) though dairy prices fell 0.8% (-1.6% y/y).

The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, rose 0.3% while less food & energy prices also rose 0.3%.

U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited Information Approach from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.

Inflation Targets and Inflation Expectations: Some Evidence from the Recent Oil Shocks from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

Consumer Price Index August July Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total  0.2% 0.4% 3.8% 3.4% 2.7% 2.3%
 Total less Food & Energy 0.2% 0.2% 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5%
  Goods less Food & Energy 0.2% -0.1% 0.6% 0.5% -0.9% -2.0%
  Services less Energy 0.2% 0.4% 3.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%
 Energy 0.3% 2.9% 15.0% 16.9% 10.8% 12.2%
 Food & Beverages 0.3% 0.2% 2.5% 2.4% 3.4% 2.1%
             
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) 0.3% 0.1% 3.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0%
 Total less Food & Energy 0.3% 0.0% 2.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1%
close
large image