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Economy in Brief

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
by Tom Moeller September 7, 2006

Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 7,000 last week to 310,000 from an upwardly revised level during the last full week of August. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 315,250 (-1.4% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 following a decline of 6,000 the prior week that initially was reported as a modest increase.

The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.

The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.

Welfare Recipiency, Job Separation Outcomes, and Postseparation Earnings: Insight from Linked Personnel and State Administrative Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 9/02/06 8/26/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 310 319 -4.0% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,492 -3.5% 2,662 2,924 3,532
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