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Economy in Brief

ADP Nat'l Employment Report: Growth Stable & Slower
by Tom Moeller August 30, 2006

The Nat'l Employment Report, published by the payroll processor ADP, indicated that August private nonfarm payrolls rose 107,000. The August figure from BLS will be published this Friday.

The rise in ADP's measure of July private nonfarm payrolls of 99,000 was accompanied by a 113,000 rise in private nonfarm payrolls as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

ADP has compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.

According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.

The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which grew an average of 11,333 per month over the last year.

The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.

LAXEPA@USECON Aug July Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.) 107,000 99,000 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% -0.4%
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