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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller August 1, 2006
Personal income rose an expected 0.6% during June following an unrevised 0.4% increase in May. Earlier data reflected benchmark revision.
Wage & salary disbursements jumped 0.6% (6.9% y/y) in June following an unrevised no change the prior month. Strength was led by a 0.7% (7.9% y/y increase in private service-producing industry wages. Factory sector wages rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised no change during May while earlier figures generally were revised up.
Higher interest rates boosted interest income by 1.7% (10.1% y/y) and dividend income jumped 1.0% (11.2% y/y).
Disposable personal income increased 0.6% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.4% rise in May. Personal taxes rose 1.0% (15.4% y/y).
Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal income rose 0.4% (1.7% y/y) after an unrevised slight decline in May. Real disposable income per capita rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y).
Personal consumption again matched Consensus expectations for a 0.4% rise after an upwardly revised 0.6% May rise. Adjusted for price inflation spending rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) for the third straight month.
The PCE chain price index rose an expected 0.2%. Less food & energy prices rose 0.2% (2.4% y/y). The expected increase was the fifth in the last six months.
The personal savings rate was again negative. Should the Decline in the Personal Saving Rate Be a Cause for Concern? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available here.
The Anxious Index, a measure of the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
| Disposition of Personal Income | June | May | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.6% | 0.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Personal Consumption | 0.4% | 0.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Savings Rate | -1.5% | -1.6% | -0.5% (June '05) | -0.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Less food & energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
