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Economy in Brief

Chicago Surveys of Factory Activity Mixed
by Tom Moeller July 31, 2006

The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's Midwest manufacturing index jumped 0.8% during June following a revised 0.1% dip in May. Improvement in the auto sector dominated the June rise. The three month growth rate remained firm at 5.8% though growth in the index peaked late last year at 9.4%.

During the last ten years there has been a 95% correlation between the y/y change in Chicago's Midwest Mfg. index and the change in US factory sector industrial production. The June Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index can be found here.

During July, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Association reported that its Business Barometer improved moderately to 57.9 from 56.5 in June. These readings are down from an average 60.4 last year and reflect weaker figures for orders and employment.

During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of the Chicago PMI Business Barometer and y/y change in US factory sector industrial production. The July report from the Chicago Purchasing Managers Association can be found here.

Federal Reserve Surveys June May June '05 2005 2004 2003
Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg. Index (2002 = 100) 107.0 106.2 101.2 102.1 100.4 97.1
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