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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2006
Consumer sentiment early this month reversed part of its June improvement and sagged 2.2% to 83.0, according to the University of Michigan. The decline ran counter to Consensus expectations for a modest increase to 85.5.
During the last ten years there has been a 77% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The reading of current economic conditions reversed about half of the June increase with a 4.0% decline. The index of current personal finances reversed nearly all of the prior month's rise with an 8.0% (-14.8% y/y) decline though buying conditions for large household goods fell a modest 1.3% (-8.7% y/y).
Expectations for the economy fell a modest 0.6% but it was the fifth decline his year. It was led by a 5.7% (-25.9% y/y) decline in 12 month expected business conditions although 5 year expected conditions improved modestly, the first gain in four months, as did expected personal finances.
Consumers' opinion about gov't economic policy recovered 5.4% m/m (-15.2% y/y), the first monthly increase since March while expected inflation during the next year fell sharply to 3.7%, its lowest since February. The five to ten year expected rate of inflation also fell to 3.2%, its lowest in over a year.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | July (Prelim.) | June | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 83.0 | 84.9 | -14.0% | 88.6 | 95.2 | 87.6 |
Current Conditions | 100.8 | 105.0 | -11.2% | 105.9 | 105.6 | 97.2 |
Expectations | 71.6 | 72.0 | -16.3% | 77.4 | 88.5 | 81.4 |