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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Fell Again, Gasoline Prices Rose
by Tom Moeller July 5, 2006

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales fell another 0.7% last week following a 0.4% slip the prior period.

Sales for all of June fell 0.4% from the May average which fell 0.4% from April. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.3% (-2.7% y/y) for the second consecutive week.

The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle from the Federal reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.

Retail gasoline prices rose seven cents in the opening week of July to an average $2.93 per gallon (31.8% y/y).

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 06/31/06 06/24/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 468.3 473.6 2.9% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
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