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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Improved A Bit
by Tom Moeller June 27, 2006

Consumer confidence as reported by the Conference Board improved 1.0% in June to 105.7. The rise recovered a piece of the 4.6% May decline that was revised slightly shallower. It contrasted to Consensus expectations for a further decline to 103.5 and compared to a 4.2% rise in the University of Michigan's June Index of Consumer Sentiment.

During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.

Consumers' assessment of the present situation fell for a second month and posted a 1.0% decline (+9.9% y/y). The percentage of respondents who viewed business conditions as good (26.8%) fell for a second month and the percentage that viewed jobs as hard to get (19.9%) reversed the prior month's rise.

The index of consumers' expectations rose a modest 2.9% (-9.1% y/y) and recovered just part of the May decline. Expectations for business conditions in six months improved slightly as did expectations that the number of jobs would rise. Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months slipped to 5.1% from 5.6% expected in May.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board June May Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Consumer Confidence 105.7 104.7 -0.5% 100.3 96.1 79.8
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