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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Up Slightly
by Tom Moeller June 22, 2006

Initial unemployment insurance claims increased 11,000 to 308,000 last week. The rise followed a decline of 6,000 the week prior that was slightly shallower than initially estimated and about matched Consensus expectations for 309,000 claims.

The latest figure covers the survey period for June nonfarm payrolls and claims fell 36,000 (-10.5%) from the May period.

During the last ten years there has been a 78% (negative) correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.

The four-week moving average of initial claims dropped to 311,250 (-6.7% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 following a downwardly revised 11,000 increase the previous week.

The insured rate of unemployment remained stable at 1.9% for the fifth consecutive week.

Ups and Downs: How Wages Change Over the Business Cycle from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/17/06 06/10/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Initial Claims 308 297 -4.3% 332 343 403
 Continuing Claims -- 2,439 -6.8% 2,663 2,923 3,530
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