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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Improved
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2006

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago improved during April on the prior month's recovery. It rose to 0.38 from 0.35 and a 1Q average of 0.24.

The three-month moving average of the CFNAI rose to 0.25 from 0.24 the prior month.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The latest CFNAI report is available here.

The Evolving Nature of the Financial System: Financial Crises and the Role of the Central Bank, yesterday's speech from the newly designated Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Donald L. Kohn, is available here.

Chicago Fed April Mar April '05 2005 2004 2003
CFNAI 0.38 0.35 0.06 0.20 0.37 -0.11
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