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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Recovered
by Tom Moeller April 21, 2006

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago indicated that the National Activity Index (CFNAI) recovered during March to 0.37 from 0.19 in February. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI, however, fell slightly to 0.29 from 0.34.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

The latest CFNAI report is available here.

Yield Curve Inversions and Cyclical Peaks from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.

Chicago Fed Mar Feb Mar '05 2005 2004 2003
CFNAI 0.37 0.19 -0.21 0.20 0.37 -0.11
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