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Economy in Brief
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
by Tom Moeller February 21, 2006
The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped during the last three weeks after picking up considerable momentum in early January. The index declined 0.9% last week after two back to back weekly declines of 0.1%.
During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.
Despite the recent weakness, the six month growth rate of the leaders at 4.7% is much improved from last year's meandering growth rate of 1.9% which typified growth during much of the year.
Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.
How Should Monetary Policymakers Cope with Uncertainty?, a speech by Cathy E. Minehan, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston can be found here.
Economic Cycle Research Institute | 02/10/06 | 12/30/05 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weekly Leading Index | 136.9 | 135.7 | 2.1% | 134.5 | 132.6 | 124.9 |
6 Month Growth Rate | 4.7% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% |