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Economy in Brief

ECRI Leading Index Down Recently, Momentum Improved
by Tom Moeller February 21, 2006

The weekly leading index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped during the last three weeks after picking up considerable momentum in early January. The index declined 0.9% last week after two back to back weekly declines of 0.1%.

During the last ten years there has been a 53% correlation between the change in the weekly leading index and US real GDP growth during the following quarter. The correlation has risen to 76% during the last five years.

Despite the recent weakness, the six month growth rate of the leaders at 4.7% is much improved from last year's meandering growth rate of 1.9% which typified growth during much of the year.

Visit the Economic Cycle Research Institute for analysis of US and international business cycles.

How Should Monetary Policymakers Cope with Uncertainty?, a speech by Cathy E. Minehan, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston can be found here.
Economic Cycle Research Institute  02/10/06 12/30/05 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Weekly Leading Index 136.9 135.7 2.1% 134.5 132.6 124.9
   6 Month Growth Rate 4.7% 5.2%   1.9% 4.2% 6.7%
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