Recent Updates

  • Croatia: Core CPI, Consumer Confidence (Sep)
  • Canada: Wholesale Trade (Aug), Nonresidential Building Construction (Q3)
  • Canada Regional: Wholesale Trade by Province (Aug)
  • Morocco: CPI (Sep)
  • Palestine: Public Debt (Sep-Prelim)
  • Bangladesh: CPI (Sep)
  • Luxembourg: Employment and Unemployment (Sep)
  • Ukraine: Average Sales Prices of Agricultural Products (Sep); Trade by Commodity, Import and Export Indexes (Aug), HPI (Q3)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Producer Price Index Firm
by Tom Moeller February 17, 2006

The 0.3% increase in the January Producer Price Index for Finished Goods again outpaced Consensus expectations which had been for a 0.2% rise, although the huge 0.9% rise previously reported for December was revised lower to 0.6%.

Producer prices less food & energy also were (quite a bit) stronger than expectations for a 0.2% advance and rose 0.4%. The source of the upside surprise was concentrated in a 1.1% (-2.8% y/y) gain in passenger car prices and a 0.7% (-4.8% y/y) rise in light motor trucks. Civilian aircraft prices also rose a strong 0.7% (4.3% y/y).

Prices of all finished consumer goods less food & energy rose 0.4% (1.6% y/y) and core consumer nondurable goods prices gained 0.3% (2.8% y/y). Capital equipment prices increased 0.3% (1.4% y/y).

Finished energy prices were unchanged (25.1% y/y) in January as gasoline prices fell 3.5% (+40.5% y/y) and fuel oil prices fell 0.1% (+36.5% y/y). These declines were offset by residential electric power costs which rose 3.0% (9.2% y/y) and natural gas, up 0.8% (31.3% y/y).

Intermediate goods prices posted the strongest increase since October with a 1.2% gain led by a 1.0% rise in prices for core intermediate goods.

Crude goods prices fell for the third straight month. The 0.5% drop mostly reflected a 3.0% (-3.8% y/y) decline in food prices. Core crude prices slipped marginally after an upwardly revised 0.5% December increase. During the last thirty years "core" crude prices have been a fair indicator of industrial sector activity with a 48% correlation between the six month change in core crude prices and the change in factory sector industrial production.

Producer Price Index Jan Dec Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Finished Goods 0.3% 0.6% 5.7% 4.9% 3.6% 3.2%
  Core 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 2.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Intermediate Goods 1.2% 0.1% 9.2% 8.0% 6.6% 4.6%
  Core 1.0% 0.3% 4.8% 5.5% 5.7% 2.0%
Crude Goods -0.5% -2.3% 22.4% 14.6% 17.5% 25.1%
  Core -0.1% 0.5% 6.0% 4.9% 26.5% 12.4%
close
large image