Recent Updates
- **Finland's Domestic Supply Price Index rebased to 2015=100**
- Slovenia: Confidence Indicators (Sep); Croatia: Construction Work Indexes (Jul)
- Germany: Ifo Business Climate Survey (Sep)
- Finland: Wholesale Prices, Import/Export Price Index, Domestic Supply Price (Aug)
- Hong Kong: Gross National Saving (Q2), Retained Mortgage Portfolio (Jul); Singapore: CPI (Aug); Pakistan: Trade by Commodity (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
EMU Sinks on New Flash PMI Readings
The EMU PMI sank to its cyclical low in mid-2016 then hit its cycle higher in 2018...
U.S. Financial Accounts See Borrowing Ease with Downswing in Federal Government Needs
Borrowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2006
The January index of small business optimism from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reversed the small December rise and fell 0.3%. The latest index level was 6.1% lower than the peak during November 2004.
The latest m/m decline reflected fewer firms (6%) firms expecting the expecting the economy to improve, down from a high 51% during late 2003, although the percentage with one or more job openings jumped to the highest level (26%) since 2001.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices rose to 29% from 27% during all of last year but the percentage of firms actually raising average selling prices was stable at 18%, down from a 22% average during 2005. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 101.1 | 101.4 | -2.4% | 101.6 | 104.6 | 101.3 |
