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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Post Another Strong Increase
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index rose 1.6% (-13.2% y/y) during the week ended December 7...
EMU-Area IP Is Slowing But Still Growing; IP Makes Modest Rebound
EMU IP gained 0.2% in October after a 0.6% decrease...
U.S. Producer Prices Edge Higher
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology ticked 0.1% higher (2.5 % y/y) during November...
U.S. Financial Accounts Show Moderate Borrowing, Average Ratio to GDP
rowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018, according to the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts data...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Diminishes
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 104.8 during November...
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2006
The January index of small business optimism from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reversed the small December rise and fell 0.3%. The latest index level was 6.1% lower than the peak during November 2004.
The latest m/m decline reflected fewer firms (6%) firms expecting the expecting the economy to improve, down from a high 51% during late 2003, although the percentage with one or more job openings jumped to the highest level (26%) since 2001.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices rose to 29% from 27% during all of last year but the percentage of firms actually raising average selling prices was stable at 18%, down from a 22% average during 2005. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 101.1 | 101.4 | -2.4% | 101.6 | 104.6 | 101.3 |
