Recent Updates
- Indonesia: External Debt (May)
- US: MTIS (May), Advance Retail Sales (Jun)
- Jordan: Foreign Reserves (Jun)
- Existing Home Sales (Jun)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Jul)
- Brazil: Economic Activity (May)
- France: France: Producer Cost Indices for Construction (Apr), Financing Access Survey (Q2)
- China: NCI Economic Activity Index (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Business Inventories Rise Moderately; Sales Strengthen
Total business inventories increased 0.4% (4.4% y/y) during May...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines to a Still Elevated Level
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 22.6 in July...
EMU Export and Import Growth Both Slow As Surplus Shrinks
Both exports and imports have been losing momentum...
U.S. Import Prices Decline; Export Prices Rise
Import prices declined 0.4% during June (+4.3%)...
French Retail Sales Rebound In June But Do Not Convince
French retail sales rebounded in June after falling for two consecutive months...
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2006
The January index of small business optimism from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reversed the small December rise and fell 0.3%. The latest index level was 6.1% lower than the peak during November 2004.
The latest m/m decline reflected fewer firms (6%) firms expecting the expecting the economy to improve, down from a high 51% during late 2003, although the percentage with one or more job openings jumped to the highest level (26%) since 2001.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices rose to 29% from 27% during all of last year but the percentage of firms actually raising average selling prices was stable at 18%, down from a 22% average during 2005. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 101.1 | 101.4 | -2.4% | 101.6 | 104.6 | 101.3 |
