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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller February 3, 2006
The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment for all of January fell a slight 0.3% from December to 91.2. The decline was due to a fall late in the month and compared to an initial read of 93.4. Consensus expectations had been for 93.0 for the full month.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The current conditions index rose just 1.1% compared to a mid-month 2.7% increase. The reading of buying conditions for large household goods rose less than initially estimated and the reading of personal finances showed the same, slight decline (-4.1% y/y). Consumers' assessment of gov't economic policy (-11.2% y/y) improved to the highest level since July.
Consumers' expectations slipped 1.6% instead of increasing that amount as indicated mid-month. Expectations for personal finances fell sharply (-9.8% y/y).
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months increased to 3.8% from 3.5% expected mid-month.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 91.2 | 91.5 | -4.5% | 88.6 | 95.2 | 87.6 |
Current Conditions | 110.3 | 109.1 | -0.5% | 105.9 | 105.6 | 97.2 |
Expectations | 78.9 | 80.2 | -7.9% | 77.4 | 88.5 | 81.4 |