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Economy in Brief

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Down
by Tom Moeller January 25, 2006

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell sharply in December to 0.08 from 0.59 in November but the three-month moving average of the CFNAI rose to 0.55, the highest level since April 2004.

A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.

Recent movements in the index have been exaggerated due to the damaging economic effects of last year's hurricanes.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.

During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.

The latest CFNAI report is available here.

Ill Winds Can't Blow U.S. Economy Off Course from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found here.

Chicago Fed Dec Nov Dec '04 2005 2004 2003
CFNAI 0.08 0.59 0.72 0.16 0.38 -0.11
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