Recent Updates
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone December 30, 2005
On this last business day of 2005, the French statistics compilers, the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) reported unemployment data for November. The rate fell to 9.6% from 9.7% in October, the fifth decrease in the last six months. This ought to be good news and is especially impressive as it indicates that unemployment at least did not suffer immediately from the widespread riots that took place in the nation in late October and early November.
At the same time, among the major world events of this past year, perhaps these riots were the most directly connected to economic conditions. As we have described here before -- in fact, on September 30, less than a month before the riots began -- unemployment is especially severe for French youth and their relative job market status has worsened. The first two rows of the table below show this easily. The overall unemployment rate is now at the lowest since March 2003, but the rate for would-be workers under age 25 is 22.8%, 2.6 percentage points higher its March 2003 value of 20.2%.
Part of the problem is that jobs are not increasing in France. A quick look at our table and the second graph shows that employment has been basically stagnant since the middle of 2001; over these last several years, the ratio of youth unemployment to the overall rate has climbed steeply, suggesting that older workers are holding jobs better than young people.
We wondered about the economic impact of the riots themselves, but much French data for these months is not yet available. Business and consumer surveys, however, hint at a differential influence. INSEE's household confidence survey "confidence indicator" dropped 3 points to -33 in November, its worst since November 1996, nine years ago. People seem most concerned about their finances, and actually less worried about unemployment, so this deterioration could result from energy prices more than social unrest. Even so, the response is pronounced. December data are due for release Thursday, January 5.
Business confidence has held up recently, though. The "Business Climate Indicator" is not at a high level, but it rose noticeably throughout the second half of 2005. French stock prices have also increased, including a rise this month to the highest monthly close since early 2001. Thus, business leaders and investors feel differently than consumers have about the present state of the French economy, and as shown in the chart of confidence indicators, such divergences are rare. The nation seems to face an uncertain course as 2006 begins.
France: Selected Data | Dec 2005 | Nov 2005 | Oct 2005 | Sept 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment Rate (%) | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.1 | |
Under 25 Yrs | 22.8 | 22.9 | 23.0 | 22.4 | 20.7 | 19.3 | |
Employment (000s) | 15,444 | 15,404 | 15,403 | 15,466 | |||
Household Confidence Survey | -33 | -30 | -29 | -22 | -27 | -16 | |
Financial Condition Past 12 Months | -26 | -25 | -22 | -16 | -15 | -11 | |
Business Climate | 102 | 103 | 102 | 100 | 105 | 95 | 97 |
Stock Price CAC 40, EOP | 4716.62 | 4567.41 | 4436.45 | 4600.02 | 3821.16 | 3557.90 | 3063.91 |