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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
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U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Rebound; Interest Rates Steady
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index increased 4.9% last week (1.0% y/y), ...
Japan’s Trade Surplus Returns Even As Trade Flows Slow
While the IMF has just lifted its outlook for growth in 2018, Japan is logging weaker and weaker export and import growth as the year progresses...
by Tom Moeller December 28, 2005
Chain store sales added 2.8% last week to the 2.4% jump during the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
The two increases did much to rescue the December average from an abysmal start when sales fell 3.1% during the opening week. As a result the month's average is down just 0.8% from November which rose 1.2% from October.
During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
Lower gasoline prices may have added to consumers' Holiday spirit. Retail gas prices fell a penny to $2.20 per gallon (22.7% y/y) last week after two weeks of moderate increase. Natural gas prices also backed off a bit after five weeks of strong gain although they were still roughly double last year's level.Further declines in gasoline & natural gas prices were evident in yesterday's spot market trading when gasoline ended down four cents from the week prior. Warmer weather helped lower natural gas prices roughly $3/mmbtu or 22% to the lowest level since mid-November.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 12/24/05 | 12/17/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 467.6 | 455.0 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% |