Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 28, 2005
Chain store sales added 2.8% last week to the 2.4% jump during the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
The two increases did much to rescue the December average from an abysmal start when sales fell 3.1% during the opening week. As a result the month's average is down just 0.8% from November which rose 1.2% from October.
During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
Lower gasoline prices may have added to consumers' Holiday spirit. Retail gas prices fell a penny to $2.20 per gallon (22.7% y/y) last week after two weeks of moderate increase. Natural gas prices also backed off a bit after five weeks of strong gain although they were still roughly double last year's level.Further declines in gasoline & natural gas prices were evident in yesterday's spot market trading when gasoline ended down four cents from the week prior. Warmer weather helped lower natural gas prices roughly $3/mmbtu or 22% to the lowest level since mid-November.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 12/24/05 | 12/17/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 467.6 | 455.0 | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% |