Recent Updates
- US: Monthly Treasury Statement, Wholesale Trade (Jun), Consumer Prices (Jul)
- Brazil: Retail Trade (Jul)
- North Macedonia: Central Bank Bills (Jul)
- Albania: Banking system liabilities (Q2)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 28, 2005
The December index of Consumer Confidence surged 5.4% to 103.6 on top of a 15.4% recovery the prior month, reported the conference Board. The index stood at the highest level since August and exceeded Consensus expectations for a lesser gain to 102.3. The gain lagged a bit the 12.1% m/m jump in Consumer sentiment reported last week by the University of Michigan.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The index of consumers' expectations added 3.6% (-9.0% y/y) to the 26.1% m/m spike during November. Optimism rose that more jobs would be created and that the inflation rate during the during the next year would ease.
Consumers' assessment of the present situation rose 7.3% (14.9% y/y) on top of a 5.0% increase during November. Jobs were viewed as plentiful by 23.3% of respondents, the highest since August and fewer (22.2%) thought jobs were hard to get, the lowest since 2002.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 103.6 | 98.3 | 0.9% | 100.3 | 96.1 | 79.8 |