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Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 23, 2005
Consumer sentiment late in December added to gains earlier in the month, reported the University of Michigan. At 91.5 for the month as a whole, sentiment rose 12.1% from November which had risen 10.0% from October and beat Consensus expectations for an increase to 89.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Consumers' expectations rose 15.2% on top of a 10.1% November gain to the highest level since July. Expected business conditions during the next year surged again and the index has improved more than two thirds since September. Expectations for personal finances also jumped. Adding to a small improvement the gains halted declines during the Summer.
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months held steady m/m at 4.1% and was below the 5.5% expected in October & September.
The current conditions index rose 8.9% following a similar gain in November. The reading of personal finances surged 15.5% (6.3% y/y) and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods jumped for the second straight month (-0.6% y/y).Decline's in consumers' reading of gov't economic policy (-20.0% y/y) have stabilized during the last two months.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | Dec | Dec (Prelim.) | Nov | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 91.5 | 88.7 | 81.6 | -5.8% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 109.1 | 106.6 | 100.2 | 2.2% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Expectations | 80.2 | 77.3 | 69.6 | -11.8% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |