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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
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U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 23, 2005
Orders for nondefense aircraft more than doubled m/m last month (158.6% y/y) and combined with a 51.6% surge in October to lift durable goods orders 4.4% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.0% November rise.
Less the volatile transportation sector, durable goods orders fell 0.6% for the third consecutive monthly decline.
Declines in orders last month were widespread across industries. Machinery orders, which had been strong, fell 1.6% (+12.7% y/y). Orders for communications equipment also fell 4.4% (+8.6% y/y) as did orders for motor vehicles & parts which fell 5.7% (-2.1% y/y). Finally, fabricated metals orders fell 2.4% (+1.4%), down for the second consecutive month.
To the upside, orders for computers & related products rose 5.3% (11.6% y/y) and primary metals orders increased 1.4% (11.4% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods rose 19.6% due to the surge in aircraft orders which continued to benefit from the end of the Boeing strike in September. Less aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.0% and have been erratically moving sideways since the Spring.
Shipments of durable goods fell 0.2% (6.3% y/y) in November following a 1.2% October increase. Less the transportation sector, shipments fell slightly (6.7% y/y) after a 1.0% October jump.
Order backlogs jumped 3.1% (13.9% y/y), again reflecting the rebound in aircraft. Less transportation backlogs rose a more moderate 0.7% (9.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to its highest level since early 2002.
Durable inventories rose 0.5% (4.1% y/y) after a like gain October. The I/S ratio for durable goods increased modestly m/m but remained below the highs of earlier this year.
NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | 4.4% | 3.0% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 4.1% | -3.4% |
Excluding Transportation | -0.6% | -0.2% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 19.6% | 6.7% | 31.4% | 11.0% | 4.2% | -9.8% |
Excluding Aircraft | -2.0% | 1.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 4.8% | -10.5% |