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Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 23, 2005
Orders for nondefense aircraft more than doubled m/m last month (158.6% y/y) and combined with a 51.6% surge in October to lift durable goods orders 4.4% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.0% November rise.
Less the volatile transportation sector, durable goods orders fell 0.6% for the third consecutive monthly decline.
Declines in orders last month were widespread across industries. Machinery orders, which had been strong, fell 1.6% (+12.7% y/y). Orders for communications equipment also fell 4.4% (+8.6% y/y) as did orders for motor vehicles & parts which fell 5.7% (-2.1% y/y). Finally, fabricated metals orders fell 2.4% (+1.4%), down for the second consecutive month.
To the upside, orders for computers & related products rose 5.3% (11.6% y/y) and primary metals orders increased 1.4% (11.4% y/y).
Orders for nondefense capital goods rose 19.6% due to the surge in aircraft orders which continued to benefit from the end of the Boeing strike in September. Less aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.0% and have been erratically moving sideways since the Spring.
Shipments of durable goods fell 0.2% (6.3% y/y) in November following a 1.2% October increase. Less the transportation sector, shipments fell slightly (6.7% y/y) after a 1.0% October jump.
Order backlogs jumped 3.1% (13.9% y/y), again reflecting the rebound in aircraft. Less transportation backlogs rose a more moderate 0.7% (9.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to its highest level since early 2002.
Durable inventories rose 0.5% (4.1% y/y) after a like gain October. The I/S ratio for durable goods increased modestly m/m but remained below the highs of earlier this year.
NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | 4.4% | 3.0% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 4.1% | -3.4% |
Excluding Transportation | -0.6% | -0.2% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 19.6% | 6.7% | 31.4% | 11.0% | 4.2% | -9.8% |
Excluding Aircraft | -2.0% | 1.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 4.8% | -10.5% |