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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Continue to Increase
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 11.4%...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases in February
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.7% (-31.1% y/y) to 91.3 during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Rise Markedly
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.1% m/m in December...
U.S. Energy Prices Surge as Texas Freeze Limits Supply
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.63 per gallon (6.8% y/y) in the week ended February 22...
EMU HICP Makes First Year-on-Year Rise since July
The EMU headline rose by 0.8% in January, its first year-on-year gain in six months...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 22, 2005
Personal income rose an expected 0.3% last month following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in October.
Growth in wage & salary income eased to 0.2% (4.2% y/y) from the unrevised 0.6% pop in October as factory sector wages fell 0.1% (+3.3% y/y). Service sector wages rose 0.2% (4.2% y/y) following 0.5% increases in October and September while government wages increased 0.2% (3.3% y/y).
Disposable personal income rose 0.3% (4.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.4% October gain. Adjusted for the 0.4% decline in prices, take home pay jumped 0.7% (1.5% y/y).
The PCE chain price index dropped 0.4% as gasoline prices fell. Less food & energy, prices rose the same 0.1% as in October. Durables prices fell 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) as new auto prices were flat. Appliance prices fell 0.7% (+3.7% y/y) and audio, video & computer prices dropped 1.2% (-9.9% y/y). Clothing & shoes prices rose 0.2% (-1.5% y/y) while services price rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following two months of 0.4% increase.
The 0.3% rise in personal consumption expenditures was a bit light of expectations. Nondurables outlays fell 1.0% (8.0% y/y) though less gasoline & oil, spending on nondurables jumped 1.1% (6.9% y/y) led by a 1.5% (5.8% y/y) jump in spending on clothing & shoes. Spending on motor vehicles & parts rose 5.4% m/m and that helped lift durables spending overall 2.7% (-0.8% y/y), helped by a 1.3% (5.9% y/y) increase in spending on furniture. Services spending increased 0.5% (6.0% y/y) for the second month and the gain was led by a 0.6% (17.5% y/y) rise in spending on electricity & gas services.
Great Expectations and the End of the Depression from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Disposition of Personal Income | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.3% | 0.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
Personal Consumption | 0.3% | 0.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
Savings Rate | -0.2% | -0.3% | 1.3% (Nov '04) | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% |
PCE Chain Price Index | -0.4% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
Less food & energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% |